Weird Scenes Inside The Gold Mind #063: Presidential Mathematics

Another day, another moral dilemma.

Soon, our Senators will be asked to vote on the fate of the current occupant of the White House. According to FiveThirtyEight.com as of October 14, 50.3% would like to see Trump removed, as opposed to 43.8% who want to see Trump stay in office. These number are somewhat volatile depending upon the day’s news, but the removal-to-remain arrow has pointing towards the exit sign since September 29.

America is not a democracy; it is a republic. We elect people to represent us by voting their conscience, but many of us are not stupid enough to expect they will. Those who think this man has been dangerous to the health and security of our nation would like to see him gone as soon as possible. Those who would like to see our government undue that damage want to see the Democratic party take the House, the Senate and the White House next November. These two are not necessarily compatible.

If we get rid of Trump, he cannot run for reelection. That means that the Republicans will have to find another candidate, and it is quite likely that whomever that person might be would be easier to win the White House than the incumbent. That, as they say, creates an element of risk.

Our moral dilemma: do we risk the future to protect the present?

There are 23 Republican Senators up for reelection next year, as opposed to only 12 Democrats. As of this writing, nine Republican Senators are likely to win reelection in their solidly red states. Six are in a less safe position and are within upset range of losing. There are five Republican seats that will be open – those incumbents are not running for reelection. When it comes to Donald Trump holding onto his job, it is these 11 Republican seats that are in play.

For the purposes of divining Trump’s fate in the impeachment trial and not for determining control of the next Senate, history has shown us those 11 Republicans are going to take a good hard look at their electorate and not their conscience. As Governor Lepetomane said, and I quote with alarming frequency, “we’ve gotta protect our phony baloney jobs.”

But most of these whores have taken the money off the dresser and now it’s time for them to take off their pants. We can count noses as of today, but that’s irrelevant. The choice these at-risk Republican Senators will make will be dependent upon how the electorate in their individual states feels at the end of the actual impeachment trial. This is dependent upon what is revealed in the public House hearings and the evidence that is presented to the Senate at the trial itself.

Can any of this change voters minds? Yes. Can any of this change enough voters minds? I do not know, but we shall soon find out.

The moral dilemma, and this can change either way with even the slightest shift in public perception, might be the choice between ending the evil immediately or undue the evil that has been done starting January 2021.

If you think that the majority of Republican Senators are decent people who will put the nation above what’s left of their party and will do the right thing, if you think the Democratic party will place nation above politics, I have only one thing to say.

Go ask the Kurds.

Thoughts?